Are you Interested?

We’ve gotten up early and have sneaked outside. With a cup of coffee in hand, we lean against the railing and look out over the water.

The humming of the engine, the rhythmic breaking of the waves off the bow: nothing but you, the ship and the sea.

For me it has a calming and mesmerizing affect. I feel alive and connected yet I am humbled into insignificance by the massive expanse of the ocean.

There is just something about being out on the water.

The captain has told us that if we are to be successful, there are basic functions of the ship that we need to understand. He has broken us up into groups with each group going to one of these key functions.

By themselves, we may not see each functions direct significance, but the Captain assures us that when pulled together, the picture will become clear if not beautiful in its clarity. Thus his love for sailing.

It looks like our group is starting with navigation.

For us to navigate successfully, we need to start with knowing where we are. So….

“WHERE ARE WE?”

For a mariner, the starting point may be the location the North Star. (Assuming of course that our GSP isn’t working or for what ever reason we can’t trust it, god forbid)

For us, our potential north star is where we are on the interest rate cycle. (Not quite as glamorous or romantic as staring up at the stars)

In the early 1980’s, or 30 years ago, long term interest rates were over 15%. At the end of December 2008, long term interest rates hit a low of 2.6%.

If you were to draw a line on the chart of interest rates from top to bottom, you would see that the decline was in a straight line, even and measured with no big swings.

So one of the answers to the question “Where are We” is …,

“At the very far end of a very long (30 year) steady, even drop in interest rates.”

While our group seem unfazed by this celestial information, based on the reaction from our crew, this is not good news.